A lot of things have happened in the week since I last posted. The Olympics started, an event that fully deserves its own post. That will have to come later.
More importantly, Russia invaded Georgia, the former Soviet republic (not the state).
The Russians weren't unprovoked. Georgia moved into South Ossetia to reclaim the breakaway province after separatists shelled Georgian forces, and Russia responded to protect the people they consider Russian citizens.
After that, Pandora's Box opened wide, and what came out was a Russian display of force nobody saw coming. The vastly superior Russian army rolled over the Georgians, not only taking back the two breakaway regions (Abkhazia is the other) but also driving deep into Georgia proper.
The rest of the world stood by and watched as a pro-NATO, pro-U.S. government got its ass kicked. That is not good.
But what could be done? Did anyone want to open a full shooting war with Russia? Hell no.
Now, you can believe what you want about protecting Russian citizens, but South Ossetia and Abkhazia are both home to major oil pipelines and other petroleum infrastructure.
Russia's invasion of Georgia served three purposes:
The first was to further consolidate its stranglehold on the oil infrastructure in the Caucasus region, which it uses to supply Europe with a large portion of its petroleum.
The second was to show the other former Soviet republics the penalty for close dealings with NATO and the U.S.
The third was to show the world that Russia means business, and unless you're going to stop them, they're going to do whatever it is they want.
Well, okay then.
When the war started, my first thought was "Is this what it looked like to the rest of the world when we invaded Iraq?" I don't know the answer to that.
Again, say what you like about combating terrorism, but by now we all know that the invasion of Iraq had at least something to do with oil.
So now we have two wars, one short (theirs) and one much longer (ours), that are about oil.
Russia has openly invaded an ally of the U.S. Conversely, the U.S. has effectively surrounded and continuously threatened a Russian ally, Iran.
Remember that line about being doomed to repeat history?
Many, if not all, of the world's largest wars are preceded by tiny ones. World War II started with Germany gobbling up surrounding countries to protect "German citizens" in those areas. World War I started because of a little revolutionary flare up in the Balkans. Stop me when this starts getting familiar.
Or how about this one: The Punic Wars. They were the largest war in history, really three little wars, between Carthage and Rome. They were the western world's two greatest superpowers, and the wars ranged from 264 B.C. to 146 B.C.
They started because both the Carthaginian Empire and the Roman Republic involved themselves on opposite sides of petty land disputes between tribes in Sicily, a strategic concern for both superpowers.
The world's energy crisis is not going away. Neither is Russia. Or China, for that matter. If they're willing to bulldoze half of their largest city just to throw a huge party, what else are they willing to do?
I'm not saying tomorrow, but this will get much bigger than we thought, and soon.
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2 comments:
Love it!!
You said all the shit I've been thinking for the past week.
Russians are the best fucking chess players on the planet.
The Soviet Empire "collapsed" (really?) only 20 years ago. A historical drop in the bucket. In that time span, the U.S. and its allies have diplomatically and politically kicked them in the teeth, smiling the whole time. To the Russians, there was little they could do except grin and bear it and plot their inevitable revenge, biding their time until the opportunity came to push our shit right back in.
And the past 5 yrs or so has been exactly that opportunity. The US name is shit on the international scene, becoming effectively the 21st century equivalent to 1970s Russia: ideologically nobody agrees with us, but militarily we scare the shit out of everyone, and rightfully so. We've become bullies and, deservedly or not, we're fighting hugely expensive wars to secure what we need in the coming decade(s) - an assload of energy. World be damned if you think we're entitled to it or not.
Well, Russia just so happens to have a shit ton of that energy. The Socialist Communists we're either too shortsighted or too dumb (doubtful) or just too damn broke (probable) to do anything with it during the Cold War heyday.
But socialism went out the window, and in came capitalism. Democracy, fuck it, who needs it? Only gets in the way. But Capitalism???? Holy. Shit. And an influx of capital in the 90s was funneled straightaway into infrastructure and vast, enormous oil and gas holdings.
And now the Russians are reaping the fruit of that investment. We kicked them in the teeth and laughed all the way to the bank in the 90s, while they quietly sold some nuclear secrets for top dollar and let in billions of dollars in foreign investment to develop their oil fields for them. And then they just went and re-nationalized them again. Thanks, world.
So now theyve got Europe by the short and curlies, and they caught us with our pants down and our dick in our hands. And dont they know it. While we were too shortsighted to secure oil in any kind of fair way, and thus had to get involved in several costly wars to secure it by force (lets not forget the first gulf war... who had ever heard of Kuwait before we discovered oil there?). Meanwhile the Russians could peacefully stage somethign totally brilliant while nobody was watching...
All a giant chess game. And the Russians rule at chess. The past 20 years have been like us taking their queen. They were down, but sure as shit not out, and the game is far from over.
With all the oil power they now have, they have all of NATO by the throat. Its not check mate, not by a long shot (We HAVE been smart enough to keep our military spending near all time highs, and if we can build enough of our totally sweet fighter jets etc before going totally bankrupt, then I like our chances), but its damn close to check...
Geopolitics gives me a boner.
Dude.... UPDATE!!!!! Tell me how to think about the fact that the only thing the right wing has going for it is national security!!! Shit... a month ago I was certain I would vote for McCain. Now I honestly dont know. What does Putin think?
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